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牛刀:哭吧,房地产。今夜你将浴火重生
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话题: 牛刀:哭吧,房地产。今夜你将浴火重生
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牛刀:哭吧,房地产。今夜你将浴火重生 8 年, 10 月 之前 评分: 8  
国务院总理温家宝25日主持召开国务院常务会议,审议并原则通过有色金属产业和物流
业调整振兴规划。至此,国家确定的钢铁、汽车、船舶、石化、纺织、轻工、有色金属
、装备制造和电子信息、物流这十大产业振兴规划全部出齐。房地产行业在国家十大产
业振兴规划中,彻底出局。这个消息是今晚发布的。

这是意料中的事,也是中国民众对中央政府还有信心的理由所在。那么,我们要问,一
个事关50余个上下游产业,占GDP比重多达5.6%的产业,为什么连列入国家十大产业振
兴规划的资格都没有?而且,房地产的相关利益方对能够进入十大振兴产业是四处活动
,不遗余力,数易其稿,几次三番制造舆论,把楼盘的营销手段悉数用上,为什么成了
今天这个局面?这是值得所有房地产从业人员、地方政府官员、金融界人士、媒体人士
做一次深刻的反思。

是中央政府不想把房地产列入十大振兴产业吗?我想不是。从中国宏观经济的构成来看
,在三驾马车中,投资所占比例已经高达39%,2009年突破40%基本没有悬念,而房地产
在投资中所占比重高达22.6%,这么大的一块,谁能熟视无睹?那么,之所以不能振兴
房地产业,只有一个解释:中国的房地产业已经病入膏肓,不能大补,只能调理。倘若
大补,很有可能一命呜呼。

万科集团董事长王石最近说:“谁都知道,暴殄天物的后果是灾难性的,甚至有可能让
整个行业断子绝孙。在2006年与2007年,中国房地产业也出现了过热,暴利的诱惑极大
地透支了中国消费者的购买力与住房梦,我曾用过一个词叫“心惊肉跳”。现在,我更
有了暴殄的感觉,这是一个行业的大忌。一个健康发展的产业绝不能为了“非理性繁荣
”而集体(失去)理智,这正是我当时抛出拐点论的重要原因。”反思他的这段话,可
以看出房地产界不乏这种少有的理性和清醒。

真的希望能听到房地产界的一篇哭声,在今夜。如果良知未泯,你就应该哭泣;如果你
还有一点对自己所从事的职业的热爱,你就应该哭泣;如果你能充分理解天下苍生的住
房感受,你就应该哭泣;如果你还有一点羞耻感,你就应该哭泣;如果你对自己的罪孽
能够真诚的忏悔,你就应该哭泣;……如果真的能听到一片哭声,悲悯大地,感动上苍
,我想这个产业还有救。否则,不用去谈什么支柱产业了,就是能在中国的产业中留有
一席之地,都将十分艰难。

话说回来,中国的房地产业先天不足,在制度设计上漏洞百出,至今仍然没有找出一个
完整的适合中国国情的开发模式,没有建立好一整套住宅供应体系,这是中国社会的责
任,是时代的缺憾。我们没有理由采取香港模式来开发中国城市的住宅,我们没有任何
理由确立一个70年的产权时限,我们同样没有理由未经城市居民的同意而将他们赖以居
住的土地拿去“招拍挂”,更为奇怪的是,还要老百姓反过来来承担如此昂贵的土地成
本……当然,我们不能去简单的诟病一个时代的缺憾,而应该保持理性建设性的态度,
去筹划我们的未来。

既便如此,也不能成为地方政府和开发商一起炒买炒卖哄抬房价的理由,更不能成为官
商勾结掠夺民众财富的借口。试想,一个依靠行贿受贿整合资源连成本都不敢公开的的
产业,一个依靠垄断和欺诈才能运营的营销体系,一个本来是民生的产业却将普通民众
逼出购买群体之外,甚至明目张胆的为富人造房子……这样的住宅产业能够持久吗?除
非连老天都闭上了眼睛。

更为奇怪的是,我们口口声声商品房市场化,却在市场严重过剩的时候,串通地方政府
对国民的财富实行转移支付,动用政府公权维护高房价,什么财政补贴,什么购房退税
,还煞有其事的引经据典,毫无羞耻的说是借鉴他国的方法,他们应该明白,这是在中
国,这样的做法是彻头彻尾对国民的犯罪。这种公开的犯罪,总有一天会得到清算的。

反思这一切,我们就不难理解,为什么中央政府最终将房地产业排除在十大振兴产业之
外。希望这对中国的房地产业来讲,应该是熊熊燃烧的浴火,更期待着这个产业在这场
浴火中,化茧成蝶式的重生。
 
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