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看看人民币和美元的购买力对比 洛杉矶VS深圳
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话题: 看看人民币和美元的购买力对比 洛杉矶VS深圳
#169
zjiang (版主)
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看看人民币和美元的购买力对比 洛杉矶VS深圳 7 年, 7 月 之前 评分: 4  
这是根据我的生活经验所建立的人民币和美元的购买力对比。欢迎大家来讨论和修正。

背景:洛杉矶VS深圳,我是2000年离开深圳来到美国,一直在洛杉矶,最近一次回国探亲在2008春节;这两个在各自国家都是高消费城市,有一定可比性。

权重:以美国为标准。

1. 住房(权重 35%)12:1。这是相当保守的估计,我们这些曾经动了海龟念头的,一听到国内的房价,都吓得不敢动了。我2008年60万买带装修的新房子,照我妈说,在深圳,即便是毛坯房,也要上千万。

2. 交通 (权重15%)8:1。越是高档的,中国要进口的,购买力差别就越大。Mercedes-Benz, Jaguar的顶级在美国10万左右,国内可能超过100万了吧。这里以最大众化的丰田佳美,本田雅戈为例,在美国一般配置(不是最低)2.5万,国内可能是20万。汽油可能更高,今早刚加油,普通型号$2.93一加仑。1 gallon =3.78 Liters

3. 食(权重10%)5 :1。下馆子,因为美国的服务费都太贵了,4:1。$100的一顿和国内¥400的差不多,但口味就差多了,可能唯一值得安慰的是吃得放心。超市里的食品,6:1。这里就取个中间。

4. 衣 (权重10%)6:1。如果是有品牌的,10:1。Nike, Adidas, $40-50一双,CK, Levis牛仔裤也是这个价,国内可能要四五百吧。低端的呢,WAL-MART $20的在国内可能就四五十吧。这里,我们再次取个中间值。

5. 小孩教育(权重10%)1:1。因为是双职工,小孩在上私立幼儿园,$700一个月。中小学虽然是义务教育,可是2:30就放学,只能送去课外学校。大学的学费更是恐怖,公立的加大(UCLA, UC Berkeley等)一年光学费超过一万。国内的高校也是这个收费吧。

6. 医疗保健(权重10%)1:1。 老婆2008年有急症,因为美国看病转诊特别繁琐和慢,直接联系好去北京301医院。住院了超过一个月,一结帐竟然不到¥3000,这岂不是比普通旅馆还便宜。在美国,住院的费用是五星级酒店的10倍。这会是个更大的话题,今天在此打住。不过照老婆看来,301的设施条件不如美国的社区医院,和UCLA这些顶尖医院差别更大。

7. 其他 (权重10%)。这里就包罗万象了,老婆颈椎不好,常要推拿按摩,一次$50-60。IPHONE$200,但一定要捆绑AT&T $30一个月的数据套餐。我用的HTC HD2 $100, 刚看了一下掏宝,¥3500,可是同样的,我一定要用$30一个月的无限数据套餐。其实真没多少时间在路上,WIFI就足够了,可是裸机$500。电影$11,南国影院¥100,但规模要小太多了。WII,PS3游戏$40一个,国内恐怕¥10也不用。这个项目太主观了,好在权重不高,我随便说个 2:1。


总体来说,美国经济更重“人”,所以医疗,教育昂贵;中国经济更重“物”,所以房子,车子,电器昂贵。以上的加权平均算下来,购买力平价6.9,和现在的汇率差不多。

当然这里有生活方式的差别,若是不买房子,$1200~$1500两卧室100平米,在深圳¥6000-¥7000也能拿得下来吧,这样购买力平价就从15锐减至5。同样,如果不开车 (这不大可能在LA),Metrolink 轻轨月票 $150, 深圳的地铁月票是多少呢?我假设300,交通方面,购买力平价就从8锐减至2。从新计算一下,购买力平价变成3.55.有人说,人民币的终极升值目标是4,看来不是空穴来风,甚至还保守了。

这里又有一个发现,深圳的地铁票比一升汽油还便宜,而LA的轻轨票相当于7升汽油。可能是美国的人工费用太高了,或是深圳地铁有庞大的财政补贴。

若是真有一天海龟,我是不会买房,买车的。
 
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