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赵晓:别轻看美国
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赵晓:别轻看美国 8 年 之前 评分: 4  
赵晓 北京科技大学管理学院教授

2009年,美国经济仍在百年一遇的金融危机的痛苦中呻吟,而中国经济却在全球率先复苏,增长速度高达8.7%,名列全球之冠。

一起一落间,中国已成为全球最大出口国,最大汽车销售国——历史上,美国汽车销售曾经达到1850万辆,2009年中国1300万辆的汽车销售量并未超过美国最高销售记录,只是因为美国掉下来,中国才成为全球第一的。中国也已成为世界经济增长最大的贡献国,而这一桂冠多年来一直是美国保持的。此外,中国去年IPO超过500亿美元,美国才200多亿美元,中国又超过了美国全球第一大的IPO,其中原因也是因为美国掉下来了。

许多中国人没有注意到但其实非常重要的还有一个数据——这一年,中国的工业净产值第一次超过了美国(王建,2010),中国的工业增加值也超过了美国成为世界第一。从历史上看,美国工业规模在1892年超过英国之后的20年,美国便实现了对英国的全面超越。因此,经济学家王建预言中国股市将在 2020年4倍于美国,而普华永道等开始预言在2030年中国经济便将超过美国成为世界第一大经济体。

笔者在本轮金融海啸之初看到中国崛起的新机遇,指出金融海啸对中国既是前所未有的挑战,又是百年一遇的崛起良机。笔者也非常乐观地相信中国最终会赶超美国,在经济总量上尤其是这样。但在人均收入上,在生态上,在体制上,在文化上,在公平上,在综合实力和人的全面发展上,中国要赶超美国并非易事。有些方面,可能100年都赶不上。

最近,中国研究现代化的学者(何传启,2020)提出中国本世纪内全面实现现代化的概率只有4%,引发不少争论。可能没有几个人会相信这个结论,但至少它从过去300年赶超的记录推算了一下未来,并从更广泛的方面印证中国要全面赶上美国并非易事。

即使在经济上,也千万别小看美国,美国仍然拥有全世界一流的企业、一流的制度、一流的政府乃至金融危机后瘦死的骆驼比马大的世界一流的金融。

尤其让人不敢小睢的是,美国这个国家拥有全世界一流的创新,为中国等许多国家都望尘莫及。美国的电影阿凡达,看过的人无不服气,征服世界票房20亿美元。中国导演看了,叹为观止,认为电影从此可以分为阿凡达之前的电影和阿凡达之后的电影,而中国导演要集体反思和学习。中国导演冯小刚反思的结果是,中国落后于美国的不止是电影,直升机也一样落后于美国。

美国的谷歌,尽管中国人不服气,但仍然是象阿凡达一样令人叹服的一家成功企业。苹果公司,三年不鸣,一鸣惊人,无论是生产出来的电脑还是手机,都让人只有佩服的份。如果说,企业通常都是生产适应需求的话,那么苹果完全是在创造新的需求。许多买苹果手机的人难道之前没有手机吗?不是的,就算有了手机但还是要买苹果,因为苹果是如此不凡,不体验一下好像这辈子都白活了似的。

苹果和阿凡达都是那种让你不可错过的东东。这样的东东,这样的令人尊敬的公司,中国有吗?

历史上,无论是德国还是美国、日本,经济发展到一定程度,都出现过许多令人尊敬的企业,并且出现过德国模式、美国模式、日本模式等不同的成熟的有特点的发展模式。中国现在已经出现一些让人重视的企业,但几乎还没有出现一家令人尊重的企业,更谈不上中国式企业成熟模式。某某人宣讲的所谓“中国式管理”,纯粹自娱自乐而已。

美国为什么有创新?这背后是它的优良的机制,包括完善的鼓励创新的制度,从风险投资制度体系到美国保障人权鼓励自由的政治体制全都是。中国人就连说话都还有诸多限制,或者象开发商任志强感叹的那样连做梦都不敢随便做,哪里敢创新?

美国的创新还源于美国的文化。它的文化从来就鼓励创新,从小就鼓励创新。孩子生下来就鼓励与众不同、独立思考,而不是只会背诵、千篇一律。从体制到文化再到教育,中国要想成为一个创新型国家,统统需要重新打造一遍,这谈何容易?可以说,越到末了,要做的事越难,因为它需要中国人自己否定自己,包括自己的体制和文化。到末了,中国可能象日本等其他国家一样,永远都难以赶上美国,因为我们没有办法自己否定自己、超越自己。

今天的中国——网上有一个尖锐的评论,叫“一无好名声(商业伦理缺乏),二无好技术,三无叫得响的品牌和产业,内不得民心,外没好人缘”。这样的中国,要想全面赶超美国,前程漫漫!

今天的中国——搜狐的张朝阳也有一个尖锐的评论,他将2010~2049年中美之间的较量,用一个公式来概括就是“勤奋的儒家精神+不完全的市场经济 VS个人主义精神+公平的完备的市场经济之间的大PK”。在他看来,如果不能彻底的市场化、公平化,答案是肯定而令人沮丧的,直至2049年中国无法战胜美国!

不必低估中国过去三十年改革开放所带来的发展成就,也不须否定未来中国的伟大前途,但中国人尤其是中国的企业群体也决不能小看为实现过去的成就所付出的巨大代价,不要低估了中国继续赶超世界最强国的越来越大的挑战。今天的中国,扩张性、粗放式的发展模式已走到尽头,2009年升腾的泡沫也已让政府扩张的手发抖,而越来越严重的贫富差距、社会公平、依法治国等问题则正在撕裂中国,中国,还能靠什么往前走?

前苏联在世人盛赞快要赶超美国的时候一夜之间突然崩溃!日本在世人预言快要赶超美国的时候也是一夜之间突然崩溃。

所谓“行百里者半九十”,今天的中国一定要清醒,正在爬坡的中国面对的其实是越来越危险的后半段,前面再也没有轻松的路,而中国想要避免前车之鉴的唯一心态就是谦卑再谦卑、冷静再冷静、努力再努力!
 
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