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美军售内幕曝光:中美硬碰硬后都还留有后手
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话题: 美军售内幕曝光:中美硬碰硬后都还留有后手
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美军售内幕曝光:中美硬碰硬后都还留有后手 8 年 之前 评分: 8  
其实台湾有再多的武器都没什幺意义,只是一两个波次的问题,今年是所有小人作恶的最后时间,对美国这个毫无信誉的世界头号无赖国家,只能对它来硬的。

美国日前宣布高达64亿美元的对台军售项目,引起中国大陆的强烈抗议与反弹,也给中美关系的发展蒙上一层阴影。很多人无法理解,此前还在不停称赞两岸关系和平发展、表态将推进中美军事关系持续可靠发展的奥巴马政府,怎么就突然如此“倒行逆施”了?此次对台军售,奥巴马政府到底在打什么算盘?本报记者电话采访了台湾知名军事评论员田金丽女士。

对台军售与谷歌退出两场闹剧一个导演

在这场风波中,不少媒体认为军售内容都是布什任内承诺项目的延续,似乎奥巴马“不是故意的”。田金丽指出,虽然是前任总统通过的案子,但只要还没通过国会,奥巴马如果反对完全可予以撤销,“他最终选择支持,就说明这件事不是意外”。

“外交是内政的需要,军事是政治的延伸”,田金丽认为“对台军售”和“谷歌退出”两场风波其实是一回事,根源都是美国国内政治的需要。

奥巴马政府上台以来,在伊朗、朝核、阿富汗反恐、气候变化等问题上缺乏有效进展,美国国内强硬派和舆论质疑,美国在这些涉及中美交互的领域表现欠佳,应归咎于对华政策偏软。除了这些大环境上的压力之外,田金丽还特别提到一点——执政的民主党日前在马萨诸塞州参议员补选中惨败,不仅丢了这个民主党铁票区,还因此丧失了在参议院的战略优势,这让奥巴马对中期选举生成了极大的危机感。为了挽回颓势,奥巴马近期在内政外交方面都表现出强势作风,同时他也沿袭美国历届总统以国际问题转移内部危机的手法,表现在中美关系上,就是通过网络自由和对台军售问题展示强硬姿态,以争取国内军工企业、劳工团体等保守势力的支持。

“如今,是奥巴马政府开始反击的时候了”,美国《纽约时报》甚至直接指出,对台军售就是在中美间最敏感问题上对中国发动的直接打击。

“假想敌”与“台湾牌”美国借势“重返亚洲”

如果说国内政治需要还只是奥巴马的短期目的,那么对台军售的长期目的,则在于遏制中国这个“假想敌”。为了更好地看清这一点,田金丽建议把近期发生的三条新闻放在一起看:

A、驻日美军或移师下地岛。针对无休止的普间天基地搬迁问题,日本建议搬到同属冲绳的下地岛,让挑剔的美军颇为意动。必须说明的是,下地岛距台北约430公里,距离福州约600公里,距离上海约810公里。以此为基地,美军战斗机飞到台湾上空仅需10分钟,美军空射巡航导弹覆盖的范围将包括广东、福建、江西、浙江、江苏等省,实际上让美军战略攻击力量直逼第一岛链。

B、中国“击毁”美航母。曾担任美军顾问的美学者近日发表《在2015年海战中美国如何败给中国》报告,假想2015年正在东中国海上巡逻的美国「华盛顿」号航空母舰被中国发射的中程诱导导弹击中,这艘搭载60多架舰载机的巨型航母在20分钟之后沉入海底,而面对“封锁”巴拿马运河的中国,美国“束手无策”……

C、美军将中国列为重点防范对象。美国国防部最新一期《四年防务评估报告》2月1日出炉。该报告将中国列为重点防范对象,将着重加强海空协调能力,为多次、多形式冲突做准备。

田金丽指出,奥巴马选在这种大背景下开展对台军售,明显是将迅速崛起的中国作为“假想敌”,继续利用屡试不爽的“台湾牌”,一方面巩固美国在台海地区的存在感和“主导性”,牵制越走越热的两岸关系;另一方面也为其“重返亚洲”的新战略布局,以更强硬的姿态介入亚太地区的变革中。

“硬碰硬”之后中美都还留有“后手”

通过各种途径严正交涉抗议、暂停中美两军计划内的有关互访安排、推迟中美两军部分交往项目、推迟双方拟于近期举行的中美副部长级战略安全、军控与防扩散等磋商、对参与售台武器的美国公司实施相关制裁……

对于奥巴马政府的“强硬”,中国大陆也给出了“硬碰硬”式的反应,但在田金丽眼里,中美双方的动作都在可控制范围内,并在这场博弈中留有后手。比如大陆这段时间的反弹,尽管看上去空前激烈,但实际上都控制在两国军事安全交流领域,并没有表现出过多对抗性。但这种克制和冷静并不代表大陆无牌可出,即使认为「美国硬起来,不对中国卑躬屈膝」的《纽约时报》,也坦承对中国强硬的政策,并不能改变奥巴马政府在一连串问题上需要中国的事实。事实上,不管是中国掌控的巨量美国国债、中美间极高的贸易依存度,还是中国拥有关键发言权的伊朗、朝核等国际问题,中国手中从未有过这么多有份量的牌。但选择按兵不动,既反映了中国不想破坏有责任感的大国形象,也是对美方接下来的表现预留应对空间。

本次对台军售并未纳入F-16C/D型战机与柴电潜艇,台湾驻美代表袁健生称美方从来没有排除这两个项目,而是必须等台湾军力评估报告完成后才能决定,“必须选一个最好的时机”。根据田金丽掌握的信息,台湾渴求已久的 F-16C/D战机当前已经在美国军工企业的生产线上,“看看美方对大陆歼十的关注度,其实售台只是迟早问题”,她认为,美方在军售问题上的“后手”正在与此,“相对于爱国者等旧军售项目,奥巴马什么时候将F-16与潜舰推到台前,才是这场中美博弈的真正观察点”。不过,她对台湾短期内再获得F- 16C/D、潜艇并不乐观,“中美虽然都表现得很强硬,但看得出来都在努力克制,毕竟一旦这种对抗升级,当前不会有赢家”。
 
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