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Home 经济金融专题 张五常十论房价,楼价上升,穷人怎么办?
张五常十论房价,楼价上升,穷人怎么办? 打印

  楼价的经济分析是深学问。篇幅所限,这里只能分点略说。

  一、楼价上升主要因为地价上升。人口密度、经济情况、土地供应等因素皆老生常谈,而远为复杂的是政府的土地政策会有决定性的影响。

  二、一个国家的经济发展起来,人民的财富增加总要找些投资项目放进去。一般而言,土地或楼宇是最可靠的财富累积的选择。房地产本身有用途,有租值或使用的收入,远没有股市那样难于调查,难以明白,受骗的机会大减。有谁不知道房子是可以住的?

  三、经济发展起来,人民的收入增加,财富是收入以利率折现,也跟着增加。人民把财富放进房地产去是自然的选择。原则上,楼价的上升等于租值上升的折现,而租值上升是反映着生产力的上升,价格理论中的边际产出理论分析可以推得逻辑井然。然而,在本文的第十点可见,政府操控利率可以严重地扰乱这个重要的经济规律。另一方面,政府的土地政策、货币政策及其它政策,可使房地产之价急升或暴跌,无端端地发达或破产的人无数。我们喜见因为经济上升而楼价上升,但政府的政策处理失当可以是悲剧。九十年代后期中国的楼价暴跌,破产者无数。但我解释过,那是朱镕基要杜绝权力借贷的宏观调控的效果,大家要接受。然而,跟着的楼价还继续大幅波动,除了国际的不良影响,北京难辞其咎。

  四、香港选走高地价路线,有他们的原因,是玩火游戏,这里不评。中国大陆的局限条件与香港的是两回事,不应该搞高地价政策。问题是,中国整体的经济发展,人口怎样分布有关键性。如果珠三角及长三角的楼价够低,人口会密集在这两个区域,对国家的经济整体可有大害。原则上,这两区还可以大量地增加楼房的土地供应,或提高容积率,压低楼价。这两区的人口密度是应该比较高的,楼价也应该比较高,但从整个国家的利益看,这两区的楼价应该高多少,我想了很久也没有简单的答案。复杂的答案我是有的,但历来不喜欢复杂,而简单答案的我还没有找到。不管怎样算,不同地区的房地产之价的或高或低是重要而又可靠的处理人口分布的法门,可惜这问题不能单由市场处理。政府的策划是需要的。市场不是万能的,有些事,有些情,市场无价——这是科斯和我的公司理论中的一个要点。

  五、原则上,楼价上升是好事。这反映着经济的财富或租值上升,人民的生活有了改进。除了处理人口分布,这原则不容许土地政策刻意地推高楼价,也否决政府压制楼价的上升。同样,政府抽物业的资产增值税有压制楼价的效果,属不智。这种税香港从来没有,美国有,知道是劣着,改不过来。奇怪目前的美国还不撤销此税。那里的楼市跌了那么多,撤销此税不会大减税收,但会让他们目前极为需要的楼市上升见到一点光明。

  六、中国可以在撤销资产增值税的前提下,考虑每年抽百分之零点五的物业税,抽楼不抽地,以政府估计的物业所值为依归,为了避免争吵要以估价打个八折。这类税收政府要说明用途,也要与其它税项分开处理。最适当的用途是城市的治安与清洁。其它税收应该因而递减。我曾经建议抽楼宇空置税。此税会压低楼价及租金,但鼓励使用没有违反经济发展的原则。另一方面,何谓空置不容易界定,实施起来可能很麻烦。

  七、楼价上升,穷人怎么办?历史的经验,是楼房的出租市场会解决这问题。我反对政府提供廉租房,理由解释过了。如果政府一定要出手助穷人,出售近于免了地价的居屋是较佳的选择。也头痛,因为贪污的行为难免,而这类房子的建造一般偷工减料,天雨屋漏,而短桩等故事会传遍天下。说到底,协助穷人的最佳法门还是尽量提供他们自力更生的机会。外地的经验说,私营或民营的慈善机构有成功的协助穷人居住的例子。另一方面,廉价楼房,不管是谁提供的,可以扰乱国家应有的人口分布。

  八、没有好理由禁止或约束外籍人士在中国购买房子。中国人是赚了他们的钱,赚了他们带来的知识,而炒买炒卖对赌,一般而言老外斗不过炎黄子孙,所谓猛虎不及地头虫是也。日本仔当年不是在美国的房地产损手频频吗?

  九、还有一个重要但难度极高的土地政策问题。经济原则说,条件相若的土地,不同用途的回报率应该相等,也即是说地价应该相等。这是指以发展或改进之前的地价算。不同用途土地的发展成本可以有很大的差距,我们要从还没有发展的土地衡量。这个重要的衡量有一个大麻烦,因为土地使用的界外效应(国内称内生外部性)可以有不能漠视的社会成本的分离,在实际运作上大名鼎鼎的科斯定律往往因为交易费用过高而得不到市场运作的指引。(科斯定理比较复杂,可以简单地表述为:在明确产权的前提下,不需要政府干预市场交易。科斯定理表明,市场的真谛不是价格,而是产权。只要有了产权,人们自然会“议出”合理的价格来。)

  八十年代到九十年代中期,中国的条件相若的土地,不同用途的回报差距很大:用作工、商业的回报率远高于农业的。可幸的是,到了九十年代后期,县际竞争制度的普及发展,带来了惊人的改进,是大中国经济奇迹出现的一个主要原因。县干部很懂得衡量界外效应,虽然不容易算得算准。整个问题我在《中国的经济制度》那小书中有颇为详尽的分析。在土地使用这个话题上,两年多前北京上头增加了对县的约束,不对,但最近有转机。我打算再作一次调查。

  十、今天看,最头痛是央行拜美国的联储局为师,不断地把利率辘上辘落。见人家闯了大祸,我们为何还不痛改前非?利率是应该由市场决定的。央行或政府不要管。只有让市场决定利率,土地使用及其它投资的回报率才有机会持久地大致上与利息率相等。这是重要的经济原则。近几年央行处理与操控利率做得不对。在无锚的货币制度下,原则上央行可以单控币量。不调控利率是佛利民(货币主义学派)多年的主张,而联储局曾经偏于这样做。后来格林斯潘转向调控利率,今天看当然是大错了。

  无锚货币的确有很大的问题。在国际相对上,美国当年非常富有,输得起,今天还算是富有的。但他们遇到很大的麻烦,在可见的将来不会容易知道利率这只棋子要怎样走才对。

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